Home / Metal News / SHFE tin is in the doldrums, pressured by inventory buildup, while LME tin awaits macro guidance [SMM tin futures brief comment]

SHFE tin is in the doldrums, pressured by inventory buildup, while LME tin awaits macro guidance [SMM tin futures brief comment]

iconJul 9, 2025 17:45
Source:SMM
[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: SHFE tin in the doldrums, pressured by inventory buildup; LME tin awaiting macro guidance] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Price Trend: Opened at 265,820 yuan/mt today, with a high of 265,820 yuan/mt, a low of 260,510 yuan/mt, and closed at 262,890 yuan/mt. The settlement price was 263,570 yuan/mt, down 1,350 yuan (a decline of 0.51%) from the previous day. Trading Volume and Open Interest: Trading volume was 95,678 lots, and open interest was 26,633 lots, increasing by 388 lots from the previous day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): **Price Movement**: Today's opening price was 265,820 yuan/mt, with a high of 265,820 yuan/mt, a low of 260,510 yuan/mt, and a closing price of 262,890 yuan/mt. The settlement price was 263,570 yuan/mt, down 1,350 yuan (a 0.51% decline) from the previous day. **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volume was 95,678 lots, with open interest at 26,633 lots, an increase of 388 lots from the previous day.

**LME Tin Contract (3-month) Overnight Performance**: Closed near $33,205/mt (down slightly by 0.35%), with recent sideways movement maintained between $33,000-34,000/mt.

Trump announced that a 25%-32% tariff would be imposed on tin-producing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia starting August 1, but indicated that "negotiable extensions" were possible, leading to increased risk-aversion sentiment in the market.

US June non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, postponing expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. However, under high debt pressure (with the average interest rate on US debt reaching 3.294%), the market still bets on an interest rate cut in September. The US dollar index pulled back to 97.58, providing potential support for metal prices.

**SHFE Tin Technical Pattern**: The daily chart is under pressure from the 60-day moving average (265,000 yuan), with the MACD green column expanding and short-term support moving down to the 260,000 yuan level. **Capital Game**: Bulls reduced positions to avoid risks (with open interest in the most-traded SHFE tin contract increasing by only 388 lots), while LME tin bulls and bears are locked in a stalemate at the key $33,000 level.

**SHFE Tin**: Maintains sideways movement within the 250,000-270,000 yuan/mt range, with conflicting support from mine-end costs and inventory buildup during the off-season. A breakthrough requires new macro or supply-side drivers.

**LME Tin**: Follows fluctuations in the US dollar, with significant resistance in the $33,000-34,000 range. A breakthrough above the upper limit may occur if expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts strengthen.

 

 

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For queries, please contact Lemon Zhao at lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn